Impossible to imagine that a billion dollar revenue based company that dominates social media and has over 900 million users has to endure all of this huge diversionary mirage about the dysfunction of their public offering. Whew!! There I said it.
Common wisdom is that drop in value has something to do with Facebook’s S1 public offering disclosures, their lack of desire to actually make money (please, does anyone actually believe this?). I cannot think that anything is farther from reality.
Facebook is developing, and I do mean developing a disruptive new business model that puts a value on connections, relationships, networks of communities. Over $1 million per 900 million. Over $3 Million per business. This is a new, yet to be proven business model.
So the fast R/evolution of web business is hard to see in real time. Microsoft dominated the desktop, Google blew up advertising, Apple conquered the apps world and now Facebook is a mega disruptor all over again dominating social media. This doesn’t mean there is lots of room in the business ecosystem for Twitter, Linked In, and others to play in the huge global web connected marketplace. Plenty of dinero. Plenty of time to grow new innovations with a long tail.
So back to Facebook. Impossible Facebook. Can they meet the mobile web challenge learning from Apple? Can they monetize advertising like Google has? I think they can and they can co-compete with other players.
Keep in mind that to 900 people today and over two billion people tomorrow, within five years, Facebook will be the Web for most people. Search, communicate, transact, locate and share all via Facebook.
So do I care that the stock is dropping? Or the valuation is questionable? No. This is a billion dollar company just growing up. Give it time, while your on Facebook or off Liking this or that.
Let’s let Mark show us what he can do. I bet he is a closet data scientist that has big plans for big analytics, big data and has a vision of the future of social media, maybe even the future of society and business.
Impossible Facebook is a fulcrum of change, electrifying the now and maybe the future of social media. Give them time to stretch and grow.
My friends at IBM research invited me and small group to the latest Watson Challenge at UC Berkeley and Stanford this week. I had a deep dive into the computing technology behind Watson and it was a exceptional.
Watson, named for the founder of IBM, was the computer that beat the World chess champ and recently became the winner over the humans on Jeopardy. Now Wellpoint the health care provider to 60,000 patients wants to hire Watson to do decision analysis.
I know what your thinking–HAL from 2001, the Matrix and Terminator’s Skynet cannot be far off. If we have Angry Birds will we have Angry Computers? This is a fair question. Luddites don’t unite just yet. There are legitimate concerns about supercomputers running our world in ways that humans do not approve of where humans are oppressed by computers. We are not there yet.
What the folks at IBM do get credit for is experimenting with inventing new ways to intelligently use data and computing to maybe, just maybe make the planet and our future a better place. Other then just making a commercial product they are making a profound contribution to computing technology but also are doing some Big Thinking about how we can use computers in health care, security, transportation and safety to better meet grand planetary challenges.
For this I give them lots of credit, willing to think big and apply computing to larger more holistic frameworks. If we are going to face the big challenges of our day and the future, Watson and computers and AI’s like Watson, who become, even evolve into true thinking machines with IDH Intelligence Different then Humans will make the difference.
Watson is a learning computer operating at 80 terabytes of power and 15 terabytes of memory. What makes Watson interesting is not the techno data but the combination of machine learning, natural language processing and reasoning programming. Watson is the beginning of a new more powerful era of thinking machines.
Is Watson a true AI, an artificial intelligence I asked the IBM team, is “he” capable do you think one day of self-awareness? maybe even consciousness? They don’t think Watson now or in the future will achieve self-awareness and after the deep dive into the technology behind Watson I agree.
AI, once known as the fifth generation of computing project ran into many barriers over the past 30 year of computing. Theoretically AI, thinking machines are possible and likely but not based on the still rudimentary computer tools we have today.
What future does Watson point to? Intuitive computing based on nanoscience-based computer chips, software that is genetic-inspired, Cloud Computing networks, quantum information systems and synthetic biology when mashed up will offer new hardware, software and computing ontologies that will transform the future of computing.
So real AI, that can advise us and invent new solutions for a planet in conflict dealing with poverty, explosive population, war, climate change and business requires a new computing model well beyond where we can can envision today. Are we there yet? No but we are on the way.
The exploration of evolutionary biology, as a computing platform is a direction I am interesting in exploring. Computers that use GA and GP, genetic programming and algo’s may hold the key to future computers.
Computing that is based on network cloud deployed anywhere AI, cloud based intelligence, with a personality, now that is coming.
If we are really going to make a better world we need next gen tools like Watson to help us get there. When Watson builds the next Watson then we will perhaps discover a new generation of post-human computing, built by computers that can help the humans figure this all out.
Hanging out at the Semantic Web show http://semtech2011.semanticweb.com/index.cfm
in SF yesterday with Sandy Rosenberg, an IGF adviser made me realize how early we are in understanding the semantic web. The show was intimate and eye opening regarding the powerful potential for this technology.
Simply put, the Semantic Web is about tagging everything and linking every data, audio, image and video source to everything–including us. Also context pattern recognition–finding insight into data that is useful.
Then better search emerges, smarter analytics emerge and maybe we understand how to sell, profit, serve and help people better in everything we do–from health care to security to making new drugs and finding new customers.
The Semantic Web will either be a boon to business or a huge intrusion into life by forces that want to mine and predict your desires. You may say what’s wrong with mining my desires? If you have to ask you missed it.
Personally I think a super computing AI, think Google in the near future with the power of predictive analytic media, seductive, immersive, intuitive, sensing your Desires and then enabling your desires for information, products, services, experiences to be fulfilled sounds both fantastic and disturbing at the same time.
Are not happy in the Matrix? OK maybe that’s too much. But someone in a very undemocratic place like Iran or North Korea may use this Rogue Technology to exploit our desires in ways not happy.
Think neuromarketing meets social media meets the semantic web. Who will watch the watchers? In the manufacture of desire be careful what you ask for.
I do think the semantic web also and primarily will drive valuable new services in media entertainment and health care, to name a few.
See Semantic Web Show in SF, well done event
Your going to hear more about cloud computing and big data impacting every organization and industry, especially government. This is the next evolution of network applications, mobile transactions and agile software services. The entire idea of information architecture, in a cloud computing future is coming very fast.
I have just given a series of keynotes to Cisco, EMC, IBM, Disney and Digital River. Everyone is embracing a cloud based strategy, why? cost-effectiveness of their IT spend and agility.
Business agility cannot evolve without IT agility. Write once, use everywhere. App’s that can be easily developed, deployed and delivered are the future and the future is now.
Now onto Big Data. I wrote a forecast on my website www.Futureguru.com about the coming Digital Tsunami, the convergence of tech and applications, from media to logistics to health care to personal genomics–an explosion of data–100 exobytes is coming FAST. Are you ready? No one is.
The storage, use, distribution and capture of 100 exobytes is insanely huge. Pardon the Apple pun. Being a former Apple executive is part of my DNA. but Big Data is the use of huge peta and exabytes of data to better serve customers, find value, develop products, feed the planet, protect the environment–you name it.
So our future is the Cloud.
For more see www.Futureguru.com
Recently I gave back to back keynote presentations to Disney, Cisco and soon IBM. Cloud computing was on the agenda. A few things to help you think strategy about the Cloud. For more on this see my website and on the home page I have a Future of Cloud Computing thought leadership article for you at www.Globalfuturist.com
1. Consider a rationale and low impact transition strategy from your legacy infrastructure to the Cloud.
2. You have to be clear about the ROI on Cloud, why are you embracing this now/ What is the ROI?
3. I support Cloud Strategies but they must support and be driven by sound business strategy–not the other way around.
4. Keep in mind that a Cloud strategy should also support or better enable where you are going–how will the Cloud drive future value for customers, employees etc. You got to have a clear mission that validates the time, cost and resources.
5. The Cloud must support a mobile strategy which is essential to your future.
6. The Cloud must support a rich social media platform.
7. The Cloud must support security in the Cloud.
Get these right and you will be on your way to having a viable and rational Cloud strategy.
As the Arab Spring continues the real interesting back story is social media. If technology is the artifact of globalization and modernity then governments who are attempting to repress freedom should beware. Technology is a enabler of revolutions. Always has and always will.
This time the power to connect people, with real time communications is transformational as we have seen in the Middle East and North Africa. This is the beginning.
Social media like Twitter and Facebook are powerful social networking tools that combined with the 5 Billion cell phones on the planet are creating a new world wide broadcast channel for person to person communications. The organizers of the Arab Spring in now five nations in this region are using social media to connect, communicate and enable their revolutions.
Actual dates were published by organizers in Egypt and Libya calling for protests and organization. A mobile map with timelines was published via Twitter. This is a fundamental shift in the use of technology to influence even change the power structures of society.
The larger and perhaps amazing story is I think about the self-organizing systems that are playing out in the Arab Spring phenomena. As more nations go into turmoil and driven by the large majority of under 25 year old’s screaming for social change, the more we may see the workings of emergent systems that are connected, aligned and moving together. Some with their own mind.
Emergent self-organizing smart systems are new forms of technology enabled global networks that will transform the planet–some dark some light. Is this the Hive Mind at work? Or a quantum type of new organization mind at work evolving to meet the social needs of its inventors?
Self organizing smart systems, social and political just like emerging computer networks have a collective unconscious Hive Mind at work. Smart Systems, intelligent evolving organizations of people, aligned around a similar ideology, across in this case nations in the Arab Spring Revolution are demonstrating via social networks like Twitter a new form of order and community.