Impossible to imagine that a billion dollar revenue based company that dominates social media and has over 900 million users has to endure all of this huge diversionary mirage about the dysfunction of their public offering. Whew!! There I said it.
Common wisdom is that drop in value has something to do with Facebook’s S1 public offering disclosures, their lack of desire to actually make money (please, does anyone actually believe this?). I cannot think that anything is farther from reality.
Facebook is developing, and I do mean developing a disruptive new business model that puts a value on connections, relationships, networks of communities. Over $1 million per 900 million. Over $3 Million per business. This is a new, yet to be proven business model.
So the fast R/evolution of web business is hard to see in real time. Microsoft dominated the desktop, Google blew up advertising, Apple conquered the apps world and now Facebook is a mega disruptor all over again dominating social media. This doesn’t mean there is lots of room in the business ecosystem for Twitter, Linked In, and others to play in the huge global web connected marketplace. Plenty of dinero. Plenty of time to grow new innovations with a long tail.
So back to Facebook. Impossible Facebook. Can they meet the mobile web challenge learning from Apple? Can they monetize advertising like Google has? I think they can and they can co-compete with other players.
Keep in mind that to 900 people today and over two billion people tomorrow, within five years, Facebook will be the Web for most people. Search, communicate, transact, locate and share all via Facebook.
So do I care that the stock is dropping? Or the valuation is questionable? No. This is a billion dollar company just growing up. Give it time, while your on Facebook or off Liking this or that.
Let’s let Mark show us what he can do. I bet he is a closet data scientist that has big plans for big analytics, big data and has a vision of the future of social media, maybe even the future of society and business.
Impossible Facebook is a fulcrum of change, electrifying the now and maybe the future of social media. Give them time to stretch and grow.
Interesting observations from Jakarta where I am presenting at the Futurology conference. My thesis is that advanced exponential tech innovations, S&T, nano-bio-neuro-IT-quantum are some of the prime tools to use to feed, provide health care, energy, manage climate for the 8 plus billion people coming soon on the planet. We can’t get there from here without new investments in S&T.
Your going to hear more about cloud computing and big data impacting every organization and industry, especially government. This is the next evolution of network applications, mobile transactions and agile software services. The entire idea of information architecture, in a cloud computing future is coming very fast.
I have just given a series of keynotes to Cisco, EMC, IBM, Disney and Digital River. Everyone is embracing a cloud based strategy, why? cost-effectiveness of their IT spend and agility.
Business agility cannot evolve without IT agility. Write once, use everywhere. App’s that can be easily developed, deployed and delivered are the future and the future is now.
Now onto Big Data. I wrote a forecast on my website www.Futureguru.com about the coming Digital Tsunami, the convergence of tech and applications, from media to logistics to health care to personal genomics–an explosion of data–100 exobytes is coming FAST. Are you ready? No one is.
The storage, use, distribution and capture of 100 exobytes is insanely huge. Pardon the Apple pun. Being a former Apple executive is part of my DNA. but Big Data is the use of huge peta and exabytes of data to better serve customers, find value, develop products, feed the planet, protect the environment–you name it.
So our future is the Cloud.
For more see www.Futureguru.com
The 4 P’s of medicine: Prediction, Personalization, Prevention and Promotion will redefine medicine in the near future over the next 3-10 years–maybe sooner.
Prediction will be possible due to a new era of bioinformatics and personal DNA sequencing and ultimately a new mass epidemiology and genomic public health that’s coming. We will map diseases, geomaps that will tell us who and where people get sick.
We will know more about who gets sick and why, the patterns and maps of predicting disease will reveal this in our lifetimes. Today we have a predictive model to determine 70-80% of illness. Tomorrow 95%.
Personalized medicine, targeted at individuals, using massive supercomputing resources to identify genomic precursors and biotags that signal disease is next. From fMRI’s to Health Profiling is coming. Jobs, insurance, dating, marriage, crime and sports will be influenced in nefarious ways not all ethically hard to imagine–think You are your DNA.
Prevention will be possible when we have mastered the medical knowledge engineering of prediction–genomic, behavioral, neural, biological etc. We will know before we can predict, as we do now with certain Cancers and other diseases. Amazing how little people can know but choose not to.
I was giving a keynote on the future of medicine to an affluent group of business leaders in Washington DC and less then 20% of the audience were talking statins to prevent heart disease. Disturbing given the knowledge that statins reduce the risk of heart disease and can even retard and prevent heart disease by 30-50%.
Promoting healthy behaviors as well as prevention and personalized medical treatments is the fourth force. A society that wants to live long and prosper must promote healthy policies and practices. Promotion will become a national security issue if your society is depopulating like Italy or Japan.
Business can do much to tie jobs, incentives, bonuses and advancement to health. Enhance your health and advance your career. A new work ethic may be born.
The whole idea of health enhancement, the by product of these four forces that will shape the future of medicine is that individuals may choose to go beyond their limitations of age, health and even what it is to be human in normal society. Vast new choices to enhance ones intelligence or stamina will be offered in the near future. Think legal drugs that refresh your memory–Viagra for the Mind and enable your to access entirely new parts of your brain or your networked brain–in the Cloud.
Oh the places we could go…
Recently I gave back to back keynote presentations to Disney, Cisco and soon IBM. Cloud computing was on the agenda. A few things to help you think strategy about the Cloud. For more on this see my website and on the home page I have a Future of Cloud Computing thought leadership article for you at www.Globalfuturist.com
1. Consider a rationale and low impact transition strategy from your legacy infrastructure to the Cloud.
2. You have to be clear about the ROI on Cloud, why are you embracing this now/ What is the ROI?
3. I support Cloud Strategies but they must support and be driven by sound business strategy–not the other way around.
4. Keep in mind that a Cloud strategy should also support or better enable where you are going–how will the Cloud drive future value for customers, employees etc. You got to have a clear mission that validates the time, cost and resources.
5. The Cloud must support a mobile strategy which is essential to your future.
6. The Cloud must support a rich social media platform.
7. The Cloud must support security in the Cloud.
Get these right and you will be on your way to having a viable and rational Cloud strategy.
Neuroscience is in its infancy. We are just trying to figure out where in the brain key functions, behaviors, emotions and needs are located.
Great progress has been made but much more R&D will be required to gain a objective map of the brain.
One thing to beware of is the intersection of neuroscience and privacy. Wireless fMRI, brain scanners if you will could potentially used to determine truth, honesty or even authenticity about belief or loyalty. Could this be a frightful 1984 scenario finally to come true? No doubt unless we are watching.
Neuroscience more neuromarketing will be used to not just understand and target the brain but to manufacture desire–the ultimate end game of business. This is beyond what science can do today unless you think you live in the Matrix now or advertising has already got you barking out loud.
I say that neuroscience will heal, fix and transform the aging brain, restore memories and manufacture desire to help sell more stuff to consumers. All things are possible in the Extreme Future..
In my last book I penned a scenario of the use and misuse of neurotechnology. Funny thing is like atomic energy, you cannot just have the good without the bad.
So the future of NeuroSci is also about learning about our minds, not just the biology of the brain. We will learn not just from scans but from simulations and learning how to improve and enhance learning in the 2st century.
As the Arab Spring continues the real interesting back story is social media. If technology is the artifact of globalization and modernity then governments who are attempting to repress freedom should beware. Technology is a enabler of revolutions. Always has and always will.
This time the power to connect people, with real time communications is transformational as we have seen in the Middle East and North Africa. This is the beginning.
Social media like Twitter and Facebook are powerful social networking tools that combined with the 5 Billion cell phones on the planet are creating a new world wide broadcast channel for person to person communications. The organizers of the Arab Spring in now five nations in this region are using social media to connect, communicate and enable their revolutions.
Actual dates were published by organizers in Egypt and Libya calling for protests and organization. A mobile map with timelines was published via Twitter. This is a fundamental shift in the use of technology to influence even change the power structures of society.
The larger and perhaps amazing story is I think about the self-organizing systems that are playing out in the Arab Spring phenomena. As more nations go into turmoil and driven by the large majority of under 25 year old’s screaming for social change, the more we may see the workings of emergent systems that are connected, aligned and moving together. Some with their own mind.
Emergent self-organizing smart systems are new forms of technology enabled global networks that will transform the planet–some dark some light. Is this the Hive Mind at work? Or a quantum type of new organization mind at work evolving to meet the social needs of its inventors?
Self organizing smart systems, social and political just like emerging computer networks have a collective unconscious Hive Mind at work. Smart Systems, intelligent evolving organizations of people, aligned around a similar ideology, across in this case nations in the Arab Spring Revolution are demonstrating via social networks like Twitter a new form of order and community.
Facebook is transforming consumers and business by offering a new dynamic marketing model where Attention and Community Rules. Not that Google and even newcomer GroupOn do not challenge the establishment of marketing, but Facebook’s fast adoption by consumers is leading the way.
Every organization should stand up and realize the Death of Marketing is here, that is traditional marketing. If you want to touch consumers, Facebook’s lessons about collaboration, birds of a feather, consumer to consumer advice and the de-personalization of technology–the digital community of virtual friends (even those you never met!) is forging a new marketing narrative.
GroupOn, Google, Facebook offer a glimpse of a future marketplace of the Mashup Economy that’s coming.