Future of Energy

Posted by Dr. James Canton on April 24, 2012 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Recently I have been giving a series of keynotes to clients on the future of energy. I spoke to the Biomass Organization and recently the Gas Processing Association. The same trends seem to be relevant.

To understand the future of energy you have to understand demand drivers such as population, wealth, economics, demographics, mobility and health care. Why? Energy lies at the very heart of every society’s sustainability. Their commerce, security and well being are tied today and will be tied in the future to energy. Energy access determines the future sustainability, climate change, evolution and development of nations. You have access to energy, you grow and thrive. You don’t and well the absence of energy is critical to survival or demise.

The world will need over 45 terawatts of energy to be sustainable by 2040. There is not enough energy in the world to keep pace with global or national GDP. Not enough means an energy challenged future.

Without radical accelerated alternative energy sources such as nano-solar, extreme biomass, natural gas infrastructure and yes more petro sources, we will not be able to feed 9 billion by 2050.

We need a new Smart Grid that connects everything users and providers, petro to alternatives to energy harvesting chips to pollution management. This is the future if we start thinking holistically. Plug in to the future.

So the future is about radical innovations that may bring us fast and accessible new solutions. Big data, Cloud computing, biotech energy development, synthetic biology etc. Without that we are at risk. Prosperity and the future are linked. Without energy there is no prosperity. New radical innovations will transform the energy equation–more energy sooner coming and fast.

Stay tuned

2012 Global Futures Forecast

Posted by Dr. James Canton on February 9, 2012 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The Global Futures Forecast is a trend analysis of what’s coming this year from Dr. James Canton, the Institute for Global Futures. What’s on the horizon.

Just published at www.FutureGuru.com the Global Futures Forecast. Future of water, network agility, innovation, mobile, youth dissent, cyberhacking…

See www.futureguru.com for the full publication GFF 2012Future of Mobility

IBM’s Watson Challenge: Future Computing

Posted by Dr. James Canton on November 18, 2011 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

My friends at IBM research invited me and small group to the latest Watson Challenge at UC Berkeley and Stanford this week. I had a deep dive into the computing technology behind Watson and it was a exceptional.

Watson, named for the founder of IBM, was the computer that beat the World chess champ and recently became the winner over the humans on Jeopardy. Now Wellpoint the health care provider to 60,000 patients wants to hire Watson to do decision analysis.

I know what your thinking–HAL from 2001, the Matrix and Terminator’s Skynet cannot be far off. If we have Angry Birds will we have Angry Computers? This is a fair question. Luddites don’t unite just yet. There are legitimate concerns about supercomputers running our world in ways that humans do not approve of where humans are oppressed by computers. We are not there yet.

What the folks at IBM do get credit for is experimenting with inventing new ways to intelligently use data and computing to maybe, just maybe make the planet and our future a better place. Other then just making a commercial product they are making a profound contribution to computing technology but also are doing some Big Thinking about how we can use computers in health care, security, transportation and safety to better meet grand planetary challenges.

For this I give them lots of credit, willing to think big and apply computing to larger more holistic frameworks. If we are going to face the big challenges of our day and the future, Watson and computers and AI’s like Watson, who become, even evolve into true thinking machines with IDH Intelligence Different then Humans will make the difference.

Watson is a learning computer operating at 80 terabytes of power and 15 terabytes of memory. What makes Watson interesting is not the techno data but the combination of machine learning, natural language processing and reasoning programming. Watson is the beginning of a new more powerful era of thinking machines.

Is Watson a true AI, an artificial intelligence I asked the IBM team, is “he” capable do you think one day of self-awareness? maybe even consciousness? They don’t think Watson now or in the future will achieve self-awareness and after the deep dive into the technology behind Watson I agree.

AI, once known as the fifth generation of computing project ran into many barriers over the past 30 year of computing. Theoretically AI, thinking machines are possible and likely but not based on the still rudimentary computer tools we have today.

What future does Watson point to? Intuitive computing based on nanoscience-based computer chips, software that is genetic-inspired, Cloud Computing networks, quantum information systems and synthetic biology when mashed up will offer new hardware, software and computing ontologies that will transform the future of computing.

So real AI, that can advise us and invent new solutions for a planet in conflict dealing with poverty, explosive population, war, climate change and business requires a new computing model well beyond where we can can envision today. Are we there yet? No but we are on the way.

The exploration of evolutionary biology, as a computing platform is a direction I am interesting in exploring. Computers that use GA and GP, genetic programming and algo’s may hold the key to future computers.
Computing that is based on network cloud deployed anywhere AI, cloud based intelligence, with a personality, now that is coming.

If we are really going to make a better world we need next gen tools like Watson to help us get there. When Watson builds the next Watson then we will perhaps discover a new generation of post-human computing, built by computers that can help the humans figure this all out.
Stay tuned.